Developing Expertise in a Changing World

“When experts are wrong, it’s often because they’re experts on an earlier version of the world.”

“The first step is to have an explicit belief in change. People who fall victim to a monotonically increasing confidence in their opinions are implicitly concluding the world is static. If you consciously remind yourself it isn’t, you start to look for change.”

http://www.paulgraham.com/ecw.html